Summary on Shell Energy Scenarios
Energy is a very important aspect in the day to day living. It assists in fuel, transport, food production and enhances communication globally. It is projected that in the near future masses of people will gain access to energy that will, in turn, make their lives better and simpler. At the same time the ever-changing climatic patterns remain critical factor. There has been continuous development in scenarios to explore the future by shell in the energy sector ever since early 1970s. This has all been in the need to find early strategies to avert crisis in the sector and also to give a projection of how the future will be.
These scenarios consider changes in the global economic environment, geopolitics, natural resources such as water, greenhouse gases, and general energy supply. These scenarios tend to show how choices made by governments, companies, and citizens will in the future affect the way life will be. Various factors emanate from these scenarios in the energy sector, like the use of solar that is seen to make a comeback as the widely used source of energy in the future. According to shell the future world will be basically defined by the way people and various governments tackle the challenges posed by climatic changes.
The shell lens scenarios help show ways to project the future as it becomes unrealistic to see future in one lens hence the two divergent views for a better projection. They thus enable to explore two future worlds and offer a sharper focus of the possible outcomes of current choices being made today.
The new lens scenario
Shell released the latest scenario Last year, on February 28, 2013, that seeks to explain two possible ways that the future could unfold with different implications to the energy system and the society at large. According to one of the scenarios there is a view of a cleaner-burning natural gas emerging as the most important energy source in the world by early 2030s and an advance action to limit the emission of carbon dioxide. The other scenario sees the emergence of solar energy use spreading and becoming the widely used energy source by about 2070. However it is projected that there will be a slower action to address the climatic change threat in the world.
Recently there has been the introduction of hybrid cars that use small batteries as opposed to the big batteries used in other cars prove affordable to buyers of new cars. Thus emphasis must be put across to encourage people on the use of renewable sources like hydroelectric energy, wind energy, solar energy, biomass, and ground source energy.
With the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from the concerned sectors clean energy use will be realized sooner than thought. Necessity being the mother of invention, change in inevitable in such sectors. When the prices of fuel rise and part of the consumers are not able to afford, they are forced to come up with alternative means. This then leads to the use of biogas that can be easily acquired from animal waste products.
The two scenarios outline a clear analysis of current trends and their possible effects in the future life. They show the effects and results that will emanate from the continuous use of energy currently widely used like oil to power our lives and the ever increasing growth of green house emission. They examine the pace of worldwide economic development, relating to the types of energy used and the growth in green house emissions. The measures entail mandating efficiency in the transport and buildings among different states, developing policies to encourage safe development of the ever available cleaner burning natural gas and encourage its use in the generation of power and other sectors.
Mountains
The first scenario, termed “mountains”, is based on the imagination of moderate economic development where policies help playing important roles in the shaping of the energy system and environmental pathways. Use of cleaner burning natural gas is the foundation of world’s energy system. By the end of the century, vehicles powered by electricity and hydrogen could be seen dominating the roads. Growth of nuclear power in global electricity generation is another factor in growth. With the stated changes greenhouse effect will begin to reduce after 2030. This will in turn lead to transformation of the transport sector. Introduction of policies leads to the unlocking of natural gas resources hence become a global source of energy by the end of 2030 hence support a clean energy vision.
Oceans
In this scenario there is a picture of a more prosperous world with an energy landscape shaped by various market forces and the civil societies with the governments here playing lesser roles in this development. Lack of sacrifice and the slow adoption of these policies may limit the development of nuclear energy and hence restrict growth of nuclear gas outside North America. The only source of energy that may remains in constant use in power generation until at least middle of the said century. Here policymakers have an obligation t o come out strong and enforce carbon capture and storage. The demand of oil will continue to exist upto 2040 when it will reach a plateau. High prices will stimulate gains and hence development in the use of renewable energy like solar. Despite the fact that wind energy is a clean energy source, the opposition to installing large wind turbines has made the rate of adoption slow.
The existence of a variety of shores: the ocean view
The rise of the Netizens with the ability to ask the government or the state what it can do for them rather than what themselves have been able to do for the state. The type of the civil societies that we have today have become quite instrumental in questioning the government and asking much from the state in terms of their own baked agenda. Also with the emergence of the social media the Netizens have becomes more and more vocal. They have found a platform from which to mobilize new ideas that have been posed to the government. Such activities have changed the style by which the markets have operated. They have been forced to lose the static nature and they are now embracing dynamism. The information circulation has raised the dynamism in the information and thus far has raised the expectation of the public. Now it is a concern for the government to regulate the type o information in the media that is made available to the masses.
The rise of minilateralism
In oceans the global order faces a challenge in what is called a proliferation of transactions. The transactions are international and multinational, complicated in the way that they prolifered thus gives or rather creates a problem as concerns the ideas that are to be put into the mainstream and those that are to be avoided. The global nations have handled the complexity in the transaction through the minilateralism that has made the development of deep connectivity between the republics that have felt the impact of globalization.
As Oceans continue to expand, we develop something that can be referred to as geo- politics. This is a collaboration between countries in order to avoid what we call the global flows. This new idea believe that it is not the meetings of the ministers of the several countries that is important in development of important political progress but it is through the technocrats interconnectivity that they are able to come together and develop better ideas that pushes the focus beyond the local scenario to the greater whole globarity. Moving in the century where the efficient use of resources is key, important countries are not those that are economically advanced but they are those that are nimble and medium-sized with the ability to handle the capacity that is required for the market at that moment in time.
Explanation of the table
Energy demand
Choice as a driver in energy demand makes governments be obliged to make better choices in terms of policymaking to influence the migration to clean energy. Price as a driver in the Mountain View applies where the prices escalates, it forces consumers to look for other affordable sources of energy like the wind and solar power in most operations. This will, in turn, lead to the use of non-renewable sources of energy. Efficiency in technology arises where the demand for energy rises, thus need for better technology to produce other sources of energy at a lower cost in comparison to oil and coal.
Efficiency behavior is steered by development of policies and measures by governments. This eventually influences the players to reduce the emission of green house gases and subsequent introduction of policies to lead in the unlocking of natural gases exploration that can be utilized with minimal fuss. Economy as a driver tends to be slower than the trend and hence this will see a shift in the use of energy from the non renewable sources to the renewable ones as consumers are unable to meet the costs of oil and coal that are commonly used.
In the ocean scenario, choice as a driver is mostly driven by the market forces. When there is a high demand for the sources of energy and hence push the discovery of other renewable sources to counter the demand in the markets. Price as a driver acts in the sense that due to the high prices of major energy source like oil, there will be need to find cheaper but renewable sources for use hence development of cleaner energy to meet the demand.
Efficiency in technology is triggered by the ever increasing market hence development in technology to meet the demand curve and enhance timely production. Efficiency behavior here is driven by the price where the market is price sensitive hence demand in other forms of energy. Trends in the economy lead to demand in energy because as the economy trend rise so is the market demand for energy sources.
Energy resources
In the Mountain View oil as a major energy resource will be on high demand and hence will fail to satisfy the demand in the market and hence other forms of energy will be developed and will hence take up its space making it lose ground as the primary source of energy. Gas will also not satisfy the demand and hence other sources developed might compete its use in the market. Coal as an energy source will be used as its found in many countries but the limiting factor will be on the transportation costs that will hinder its growth and use.
Nuclear energy in this stage will experience a rebirth in its use and will be widely used. The use of electric renewable source in this scenario will be seen to be struggling due to the high costs of operation and development of technology. Biomass use will be on the rise to counter the expensive use of electricity renewable as it is cheaper and easily affordable.
In the ocean view scenario, the use of oil will lead to long liquid fuel games that will be characterized by the ever-increasing market demands and forces. Use of gas in the market will increase and there will be a wide spread use outside North America to over the oceans and hence to others developing economies.
In the ocean view scenario use of oil will face resilience due to the health threats it poses to the communities around where it is produced hence face decline in its use. The use of nuclear energy as well will face opposition in the long run also due to the environmental threats it poses and heath related problems. Electric renewable as a driver will shift to the widespread use of solar energy that is renewable and environmentally friendly. Use of biomass is projected to rise in the transport industry and later in the industries to run production.
Energy technology
In mountain scenario, most of the innovations made will be governed by the intellectual right formed by the industrial players and the various governments as they will be charged with the duty of setting tariffs ad regulating policies.
Technology implementation is seen to be on a large scale basis where the various policies will ensure the success of such developments by the governments and industrial players in the energy sector. In transportation, there will a wide use of gas and electrification where they will be used to power the vehicles and other machines. Electricity technology will be centralized and the carbon capture and storage will be stored to reduce emissions and keep fossil fuels in the electricity supply mix.
In the ocean view scenario, it will be characterized by open innovations by several industry players leading to clean energy use. In the transport area, there will be an improved use of better and efficiency in use of gasoline and diesel energy in the market that will mostly be environment friendly. Electricity will be widely distributed and used in different sectors of economy to meet the demand of energy use from the renewable sources.
Environment
In the Mountain View use of land will be characterized by compact city method whereby it is less polluting and efficient as they lessen the impacts on the environment while increasing infrastructure development. Climatically certain areas are protected and planting of trees is highly practiced and encouraged for better climatic condition. Major adaptation techniques here are through defensive methods whereby a problem is solved as it comes and remedies to it are put in consideration.
Conclusion
Green revolution is inevitable and the earlier it is embraced the better for the next generations. Large agricultural lobby groups are already gaining ground in the developed countries and hence the push for biofuels is on rise, as a result, the emerging demands of energy supply tend to make law makers less keen on acting against such explorations. Although both scenarios may look to be prospecting a better tomorrow in the energy sector, more is to be done to avert the rise of geopolitical chaos in the near future. The most significant factor that will help shape the future is how we plan the next five years in the full view of possible troubles lying ahead as well as noting the opportunities that pose ahead. These scenarios should help us create debate and dialogues on the best way to shape the future through the choices that we currently make.
The slow rate of policy reforms and implementation strategy as evident in the Mountain scenario can create social tensions that can find some form of political expression and hence instigate change in the long run. Hence strategic planning is necessary and proper leaders need to emerge and steer full realization of better results as we near the transition period. Wisdom is hence necessary to avert the future troubles and find a path or strategies to help sail through the turbulent times. The taxes imposed on co2 emissions should be increased to make firms clean up their carbon and find ways of proper storage and capture method. When all these are put in place the future energy world will be brighter.
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