- What type of decision is Ken facing?
*Decision under uncertainty
- What decision criterion should he use?
- What alternative is best
*He should choose Sub 100, since it has the best possible outcome.
|Ken is using maximax criterion and should select sub 100 as it has the maximum payoff of $300000.|
|As Bob is pessimistic, He should use Maximin criterion.|
|Equipment||Favourable Mkt($)||Unfavourable Mkt($)||Row minimum|
|Sub 100||$ 300,000.00||$ (200,000.00)||$ (200,000.00)|
|Oiler J||$ 250,000.00||$ (100,000.00)||$ (100,000.00)|
|Texan||$ 75,000.00||$ (18,000.00)||$ (18,000.00)|
|Using Maximin criterion, Bob would select Texan as worst payoff for this alternative
is better than the worst payoffs of other alternatives
|(a) What decision would maximize expected profits?|
|To decide the best alternative, we need to calculate EMV for each alternative as shown below.|
|STATE OF NATURE||EMV|
|DECISION ALTERNATIVE||GOOD ECONOMY||POOR ECONOMY|
As the EMV is maximum for Stock market, Mickey should invest in the Stock market.
|(b) What is the maximum amount that should be paid for perfect forecast of the economy?|
|Expected Value for Perfect information (EVPI) is the amount that should be paid for perfect forecast of the economy.|
|EVPI = EV with perfect information – Maximum EMV|
|EV with Perfect information = Best payoff for first state of nature
*Probability of the 1st state of nature +Best payoff for second state of nature
*Probability of the 2nd state of nature
|EV with PI||51500|
|Thus, the maximum amount that should be paid is $21,500|
|(a) Develop an opportunity loss table.|
|Opportunity loss Table|
|STRONG MARKET||FAIR MARKET||POOR MARKET|
|(b) What is the minimax regret decision?|
|Opportunity loss Table|
|STRONG MARKET||FAIR MARKET||POOR MARKET||MAXIMUM REGRET|
|Minimax regret decision is to build Medium-sized facility.|
|EMV for node 1(Construct clinic) = 0.5*100000 +0.5*(-40,000) = $30,000|
|EMV for do nothing=$0|
|The EMV for tree is maximum of the two, thus $30,000|
As, EMV is highest for the alternative of constructing a clinic, the medical professionals should construct the clinic.
Turskis, Z., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2011). Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods in economics: an overview. Technological and economic development of economy, (2), 397-427.
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