crude death rates in Japan and Bangladesh

A.1. Fertility Measures

Age (x)	Bangladesh (2010)		Japan (2010)
	ASFR (per 1000)	Female Pop.	ASFR (per 1000)	Female Pop.
15-19	118.2	8,180,000	5.4	2,963,000
20-24	153.3	7,434,000	39.6	3,315,000
25-29	106.7	6,719,000	91.4	3,833,000
30-34	56.2	6,269,000	93.2	4,247,000
35-39	21.8	5,565,000	39.3	4,828,000
40-44	6.1	4,335,000	6.2	4,265,000
45-49	3.0	4,032,000	0.1	3,914,000

 

For each of female population (i.e. in Bangladesh and in Japan) calculate:

2010. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2010.

Bangladeshi

TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)

=5 x (118.2+153.3+106.7+56.2+21.8+6.1+3.0)

=2326.5 per 1000 women or 2.3265 per woman

Japan

TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)

=5x (5.4+39.6+91.4+93.2+39.3+6.2+0.1)

=1376 per 1000 women or 1.376 per woman

2010. The General Fertility Rate (GFR) in 2010.

General Fertility Rate is the birth rate of women of child bearing age (15-44)

= (Total birth/ no. Of women aged 15-44) x 1000

Based on cumulative frequency, GFR of Bangladesh = (42,534,000/38,502,000) x 1000

=1104.721

For Japan= (27,365,000/23,451,000)1000

=1166.901

1. The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2010, assuming the sex ratio at birth is 104 for Bangladeshi population and 106 for Japanese

For the Bangladeshi, GRR in 2010,   = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)

= 2.3265 x 100/ (100+ 104)

=1.140

For Japan, GRR in 2010,                 = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)

=1.376 x 100/ (100+ 106)

=0.0668

1. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2010, assuming that female mortality for both populations is described by the 2010 life tables for each country. Selected values from the T_x column of the two life tables are presented in the table below (l₀ = 100,000).

(Note: Use 3 dcp. for TFR, GFR, GRR and NRR).

Age (x)	Bangladeshi female		Japanese female
	5Lx	Tx	5Lx	Tx
15	455,185	5,380,375	497,965	7,132,329
20	452,440	4,925,190	497,427	6,634,364
25	449,475	4,472,750	496,765	6,136,937
30	445,740	4,023,275	495,906	5,640,172
35	441,405	3,577,535	494,729	5,144,266
40	435,905	3,136,130	493,020	4,649,537
45	428,520	2,700,225	490,458	4,156,517
50		2,271,705		3,666,059

 

Survival Probability [0 tends to (x, x+5)]

Age (x)	Bangladeshi women	Japanese women
15-19	0.91037	0.99593
20-24	0.90488	0.994854
25-29	0.89895	0.99353
30-34	0.89148	0.991812
35-39	0.88281	0.989458
40-44	0.87181	0.98604
45-49	0.85704	0.980916

 

Proportion of female Birth                     ASFR x Survival prob.  x  prop. Of female Birth

Age (x)	Bangladeshi	Japan	Bangladeshi	Japan
15-19	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	52.727	2.608
20-24	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	67.972	19.107
25-29	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	47.000	44.042
30-34	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	24.550	44.832
35-39	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	9.430	18.860
40-44	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	2.606	2.965
45-49	100/ (100+104)	100/ (100+106)	1.260	0.048
			205.545	132.462

 

NRR for Bangladeshi =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000

= (5 x 205.545)/1000

=1.028

NRR for Japan =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000

= (5 x 132.462)/1000

=0.662

The following table presents the age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japan in the period 2000-2009. Use the information provided in the table to answer Questions e and f.

Age	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000)
15	0.14	0.16	0.19	0.19	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.15	0.18
16	0.67	0.78	0.89	0.87	0.77	0.68	0.70	0.67	0.69	0.69
17	2.45	2.74	2.87	2.65	2.54	2.27	2.36	2.19	2.37	2.36
18	5.46	5.75	5.94	5.46	5.32	4.91	5.06	4.84	5.18	4.96
19	10.35	11.00	11.29	10.60	10.51	9.70	9.45	9.42	9.72	9.43
20-24	33.99	34.92	34.96	33.42	33.01	32.03	33.04	32.31	32.48	31.17
25-29	93.86	90.49	87.40	84.06	82.01	78.87	81.57	81.18	81.95	80.95
30-39	67.27	66.04	65.52	65.05	65.92	64.70	68.44	70.39	72.42	73.41
40-49	2.61	2.68	2.86	3.05	3.26	3.33	3.69	4.10	4.42	4.75

 

1. What is the cumulative fertility rate for the 2005 birth cohort to age 18?

 The cumulative frequency of birth for the 2005 to age 18 = 8.01 (per 1000 women)

1. What is the total fertility rate for Japan in 2008?

The total fertility rate of Japan in 2008 = 5 (209.38)

=1046.9 per 1000 women

 

 

A.2. Mortality and Standardization

The numbers of population by age on 30/6/2010 and the age specific death rates (ASDR) per 1000 population in 2010 for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population are given in the following table:

	Japan		Bangladesh		Number of Deaths ( pop x ASDR/1000)
Age x	Female Pop.	ASDR (per 1000)	Female Pop.	ASDR (per 1000)	Japan	Bangladesh
0-4	2,577,000	0.586	8,816,000	17.149	1,510	151,186
9-May	2,723,000	0.08	9,179,000	1.4	218	12,851
14-Oct	2,877,000	0.071	8,820,000	0.739	204	6,518
15-19	2,929,000	0.164	8,180,000	1.2	480	9,816
20-24	3,106,000	0.255	7,434,000	1.22	792	9,070
25-29	3,531,000	0.29	6,719,000	1.411	1,024	9,481
30-34	4,073,000	0.408	6,269,000	1.929	1,662	12,093
35-39	4,761,000	0.565	5,565,000	1.98	2,690	11,019
40-44	4,251,000	0.831	4,335,000	3.042	3,533	13,187
45-49	3,932,000	1.263	4,032,000	3.799	4,966	15,318
50-54	3,812,000	1.935	3,033,000	6.971	7,376	21,143
55-59	4,414,000	2.763	2,290,000	8.819	12,196	20,196
60-64	5,062,000	3.94	1,787,000	16.071	19,944	28,719
65-69	4,304,000	5.953	1,406,000	29.601	25,622	41,619
70-74	3,742,000	9.832	1,033,000	53.709	36,791	55,481
75-79	3,355,000	18.01	674,000	67.189	60,424	45,285
80-84	2,643,000	34.614	359,000	87.149	91,485	31,287
85+	2,716,000	107.652	162,000	275.4	292,383	44,615
	64,808,000		80,093,000		563,300	538,884
Total

 

Using the mortality data provided in the previous page, estimate:

2010. The actual number of deaths and crude death rates (CDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population in 2010.

Note: use 0 decimal places (dcp.) for the number of deaths and 3 dcp. for CDR.

From the table above, the Total Number of Deaths in 2010 female population of:

Japan=563,300

Bangladeshi=538,884

Crude Death Rates (CDR) for the countries,

Japan: CDR= (Total no. of Deaths /population) x1000

(560472.475 /64,808,000)1000

=8.648

Bangladeshi: CDR = (538,884/80,093,000) 1000

=6.728

1. b. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardized death rates (ISDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population (Note: use 3 dcp. decimal point for SDR).

Expected number of death= sum[(ASDR standard x population Agex)/1000

 

 

		Japan				Bangladesh
Age x	Female Pop.		Expected number of death	ASDR (per 1000)	Female Pop.		Expected number of death	ASDR (per 1000)
0-4	2,577,000		1,510	0.586	8,816,000		151,186	17.149
9-May	2,723,000		218	0.08	9,179,000		12,851	1.4
14-Oct	2,877,000		204	0.071	8,820,000		6,518	0.739
15-19	2,929,000		480	0.164	8,180,000		9,816	1.2
20-24	3,106,000		792	0.255	7,434,000		9,070	1.22
25-29	3,531,000		1,024	0.29	6,719,000		9,481	1.411
30-34	4,073,000		1,662	0.408	6,269,000		12,093	1.929
35-39	4,761,000		2,690	0.565	5,565,000		11,019	1.98
40-44	4,251,000		3,533	0.831	4,335,000		13,187	3.042
45-49	3,932,000		4,966	1.263	4,032,000		15,318	3.799
50-54	3,812,000		7,376	1.935	3,033,000		21,143	6.971
55-59	4,414,000		12,196	2.763	2,290,000		20,196	8.819
60-64	5,062,000		19,944	3.94	1,787,000		28,719	16.071
65-69	4,304,000		25,622	5.953	1,406,000		41,619	29.601
70-74	3,742,000		36,791	9.832	1,033,000		55,481	53.709
75-79	3,355,000		60,424	18.01	674,000		45,285	67.189
80-84	2,643,000		91,485	34.614	359,000		31,287	87.149
85+	2,716,000		292,383	107.652	162,000		44,615	275.4
	64,808,000				80,093,000
Total			563,300				538,884

 

Standardized mortality ratio= (Actual deaths/ Expected Deaths)

For Japan                                 =560472.475/563,300 =0.995

For Bangladesh                       =538,884/538,884=1.000

Indirect SDR= SMR x CDR standard population

For Japan=8.648 x0.995 =8.605 deaths per 1000 population

For Bangladesh=6.728×1.000 =6.728 deaths per 1000 population

4. If the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for Bangladeshi population is estimated 4.52 and for Japanese population is estimated 1.00. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, what are the new values of the indirectly standardized mortality rates (ISDR) for Bangladeshi population and for the Japanese population?

If the estimated SMR= 4.52 and 1 for Bangladeshi and Japan respectively, then the new values of ISDR

For Bangladesh= 4.54 x 6.728 = 30.545

For Japan=1 x 8.648 = 8.648

A.3.          Population Projection

Project the female population of Japan from 2010 to 2015 with the following assumptions:

• Female mortality is constant at the levels described by the 2010 Japanese female life table,
• Fertility declines by 5% from its level in 2010 levels,
• The sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females.
• The additions of the population in 2010 are also affected by net female migration.

The estimated numbers of females in Japan by age on 30/6/2010 and age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japanese in 2010 are presented in the following table:

Age (x)	Number of females on 30/06/2010	ASFR (per 1000) in 2010	Proportion Surviving x à x+5	Projected Female pop. before Migration	Net Female Migrants in 2015	Projected Female Population in 2015
0-4	2,577,000		0.9993	2,577,000	-3,299	2573701
5-9	2,723,000		0.9997	2575196.1	-977	257419.1
10-14	2,877,000		0.9994	2722183.1	174	2722357.1
15-19	2,929,000	5.4	0.9987	2875273.8	7,771	2883044.8
20-24	3,106,000	39.6	0.9987	2925192.3	10,649	293584.3
25-29	3,531,000	91.4	0.9983	3101962.2	-1,898	3100064.2
30-34	4,073,000	93.2	0.9976	3524997.3	-3,462	3521535.3
35-39	4,761,000	39.3	0.9966	4063224.8	-1,630	4061594.8
40-44	4,251,000	6.2	0.9948	4228894.8	401	4229295.8
45-49	3,932,000	0.1	0.9921	3900937.2	252	3901189.2
50-54	3,812,000		0.9885	3900937.2	-139	3900798.2
55-59	4,414,000		0.9835	3768162	856	3769018
60-64	5,062,000		0.9598	4341169	2,306	434375
65-69	4,304,000		0.9627	4858507.6	1,105	4859612.6
70-74	3,742,000		0.9348	4143460.8	724	4144184.8
75-79	3,355,000		0.8803	3498021.6	406	3498427.6
80-84	2,643,000		0.7762	2953406.5	139	2953545.5
85+	2,716,000		0.4725	1248817.5	21	128838.5
Total	64,808,000					51,232,586

 

Note:   Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving ( x à x+5)

Use 0 decimal places for the projected population

Some values from the T_x column of an abridged life table (l₀ = 100,000) for Japanese females (2010) are presented in the following table:

Age x	5Lx	Tx		Age x	5Lx	Tx
0	498,769	8,627,756		50	486,565	3,666,062
5	498,414	8,128,987		55	480,988	3,179,497
10	498,244	7,630,572		60	473,053	2,698,509
15	497,965	7,132,329		65	461,643	2,225,456
20	497,427	6,634,364		70	444,446	1,763,813
25	496,765	6,136,937		75	415,454	1,319,367
30	495,905	5,640,172		80	365,730	903,913
35	494,729	5,144,267		85	283,872	538,183
40	493,020	4,649,538		90		254,311
45	490,456	4,156,518

 

 

 

 

 

 

B.1.        Using the results from A.1, describe and comment on the differences in the fertility parameters (ASFR, TFR and NRR) of Bangladeshi and Japanese female population. Comment on how do the values of Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) for Bangladeshi and for Japanese female population in 2010 compare to the replacement level? Suggest possible causes or determinants of its differences in those fertility measures.

According to result of A1, the fertility parameters of Japan and Bangladeshi vary significantly owing to the population contents and growth of the two countries. The TFR, NRR as well as the ASFR of Bangladeshi are higher than that of Japan due to a number of factors. Notably, the NRR of Bangladeshi reflects high female proportion and survival probability raising the figure higher than that of Japan in 2010 at the replacement level. More importantly, with this projection, Bangladeshi shows strong signals of reproduction rate, for women aged 15 to 44 (at the reproductive age). Japan on the other hand shows strong signal of fertility rate owing to different population growth indicators.

Some of the possible causes of the differences in fertility measures are owed to survival mechanisms of the women population, social interactions, and the pre-existing fertility conditions. The determinants of these measures are the fertility transitions, mortality changes, income levels of the population, and the net production rates.

B.2.     Using the results from A.2, describe and comment on the differences in the mortality parameters (CDR and I-SDR) and patterns of Japanese and Bangladeshi female population. Please justify what are the possible reasons of its differences.                                                     According to A2, Japan shows high mortality parameter rates in terms of CDR and ISDR than Bangladeshi. The female population is high in Bangladesh than In Japan. However, the expected number of deaths is high in Japan than in Bangladesh. The difference is owed to the differences in their ASDR.

The possible reasons for this difference are among others due to their significant differences in the social strata of the two countries that reflect high population variances. The economic differences of the two nations is big as well making different population indicators, perceptions, and the health pre-existing conditions to vary.

1. Compare and contrast the main characteristics of the long term population projections produced by the following five organisations (mention at least two points for each organisation):

United Nations (UN)

The UN publishes their population projections every 2 years with scenarios which differ in their assumptions on fertility rates. The main characteristics of these projections produced by the United Nations are production of these population scenarios with high, low and medium fertility trends assumptions in the future ((Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).). It also characterized by scenarios that illustrate the influence of rising life expectancy on projection outcomes though comparisons of fertility and alternative mortality scenarios in the future.

World Bank (WB)

Population projections characterized by their annual projections at the country levels. The long term projections are six biennial projections to 2150, which have base case and assumptions of either slow or rapid fertility decline. Their long-term projections are also characterized by 40 years projection output, and mainly for internal use.

(3)   US Census Bureau (USCB)

The USCB long term projections are characterized by single a scenario with printed versions that show their output for 15 to 25 years into the future. Their projections are updated annually through to 2050.

(4)   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

The IIASA population projections are characterized by three scenarios of output in 13 regions in the world through to 2100. The three outputs are fertility, mortality, and migration. The main characteristic of this institution is that they provide probabilistic output.

(5)   Population reference Bureau (PRB)

The long-term population projection of the PRB is characterized by limitations of their public output to population size. In addition, their projections combine country-supplied projections, projections by the UN as well as that of the USCB to generate their own projections in minority of countries.  The main characteristic of their projections is their generation of projections if only in access to more and reliable data on baseline population, fertility and mortality (Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).

1. What projection method is used by each of these organizations?

The projection method used by all the above institutions is the cohort-component methodology.

1. What are the two possible approaches discussed for allowing for a range of projected outcomes relating to assumptions about the future?

The two approaches discussed are the single scenario and the use of different scenario approach. They also use time based approach for projections.

1. Summarize in point form (cover at least 5 points), the issues discussed in section 5 relating to assumptions for fertility trends for different countries over the future period of projections.
2. Individual institutions have made massive steps in making significant contributions in making global projections in population by of use different methodologies in population projections
3. United States and the United Nations have taken leadership roles and contributions to population projections in the world that are significant in global socio-economic planning.

• Most long term projections have myriad approaches but are characteristically based on time series scenarios that cover periods of time.

1. The input assumptions which are the basis of these projections, for instance, future rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, vary considerably with the number output scenarios produced.
2. The United Nations are best suited in producing long term projections based on their 10 years approximations which cater substantial changes and assumptions over the period.

Reference List

Brian, et all. 2001, A Guide to Global Population Projections, Demographic research, vol (4); p 203-288.

Frejka, T., & Sardon, J.-P. (2004). Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: a cohort analysis. Dordrecht [u.a.], Kluwer.

United Nations. (2009). Completing the fertility transition. New York, N.Y., United Nations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Proceed to pay for the paper so that it can be assigned to one of our expert academic writers. The paper subject is matched with the writer’s area of specialization.

3.      Track the progress

You communicate with the writer and know about the progress of the paper. The client can ask the writer for drafts of the paper. The client can upload extra material and include additional instructions from the lecturer. Receive a paper.

4.      Download the paper

The paper is sent to your email and uploaded to your personal account. You also get a plagiarism report attached to your paper.

PLACE THIS ORDER OR A SIMILAR ORDER WITH US TODAY AND GET A PERFECT SCORE!!!

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