A.1. Fertility Measures
|Age (x)||Bangladesh (2010)||Japan (2010)|
|ASFR (per 1000)||Female Pop.||ASFR (per 1000)||Female Pop.|
For each of female population (i.e. in Bangladesh and in Japan) calculate:
- The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2010.
TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)
=5 x (118.2+153.3+106.7+56.2+21.8+6.1+3.0)
=2326.5 per 1000 women or 2.3265 per woman
TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)
=1376 per 1000 women or 1.376 per woman
- The General Fertility Rate (GFR) in 2010.
General Fertility Rate is the birth rate of women of child bearing age (15-44)
= (Total birth/ no. Of women aged 15-44) x 1000
Based on cumulative frequency, GFR of Bangladesh = (42,534,000/38,502,000) x 1000
For Japan= (27,365,000/23,451,000)1000
- The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2010, assuming the sex ratio at birth is 104 for Bangladeshi population and 106 for Japanese
For the Bangladeshi, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)
= 2.3265 x 100/ (100+ 104)
For Japan, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)
=1.376 x 100/ (100+ 106)
- The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2010, assuming that female mortality for both populations is described by the 2010 life tables for each country. Selected values from the Tx column of the two life tables are presented in the table below (l0 = 100,000).
(Note: Use 3 dcp. for TFR, GFR, GRR and NRR).
|Age (x)||Bangladeshi female||Japanese female|
Survival Probability [0 tends to (x, x+5)]
|Age (x)||Bangladeshi women||Japanese women|
Proportion of female Birth ASFR x Survival prob. x prop. Of female Birth
|15-19||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||52.727||2.608|
|20-24||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||67.972||19.107|
|25-29||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||47.000||44.042|
|30-34||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||24.550||44.832|
|35-39||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||9.430||18.860|
|40-44||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||2.606||2.965|
|45-49||100/ (100+104)||100/ (100+106)||1.260||0.048|
NRR for Bangladeshi =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000
= (5 x 205.545)/1000
NRR for Japan =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000
= (5 x 132.462)/1000
The following table presents the age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japan in the period 2000-2009. Use the information provided in the table to answer Questions e and f.
|Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000)|
- What is the cumulative fertility rate for the 2005 birth cohort to age 18?
The cumulative frequency of birth for the 2005 to age 18 = 8.01 (per 1000 women)
- What is the total fertility rate for Japan in 2008?
The total fertility rate of Japan in 2008 = 5 (209.38)
=1046.9 per 1000 women
A.2. Mortality and Standardization
The numbers of population by age on 30/6/2010 and the age specific death rates (ASDR) per 1000 population in 2010 for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population are given in the following table:
|Japan||Bangladesh||Number of Deaths ( pop x ASDR/1000)|
|Age x||Female Pop.||ASDR (per 1000)||Female Pop.||ASDR (per 1000)||Japan||
Using the mortality data provided in the previous page, estimate:
- The actual number of deaths and crude death rates (CDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population in 2010.
Note: use 0 decimal places (dcp.) for the number of deaths and 3 dcp. for CDR.
From the table above, the Total Number of Deaths in 2010 female population of:
Crude Death Rates (CDR) for the countries,
Japan: CDR= (Total no. of Deaths /population) x1000
Bangladeshi: CDR = (538,884/80,093,000) 1000
- b. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardized death rates (ISDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population (Note: use 3 dcp. decimal point for SDR).
Expected number of death= sum[(ASDR standard x population Agex)/1000
|Age x||Female Pop.||Expected number of death||ASDR (per 1000)||Female Pop.||Expected number of death||ASDR (per 1000)|
Standardized mortality ratio= (Actual deaths/ Expected Deaths)
For Japan =560472.475/563,300 =0.995
For Bangladesh =538,884/538,884=1.000
Indirect SDR= SMR x CDR standard population
For Japan=8.648 x0.995 =8.605 deaths per 1000 population
For Bangladesh=6.728×1.000 =6.728 deaths per 1000 population
- If the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for Bangladeshi population is estimated 4.52 and for Japanese population is estimated 1.00. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, what are the new values of the indirectly standardized mortality rates (ISDR) for Bangladeshi population and for the Japanese population?
If the estimated SMR= 4.52 and 1 for Bangladeshi and Japan respectively, then the new values of ISDR
For Bangladesh= 4.54 x 6.728 = 30.545
For Japan=1 x 8.648 = 8.648
A.3. Population Projection
Project the female population of Japan from 2010 to 2015 with the following assumptions:
- Female mortality is constant at the levels described by the 2010 Japanese female life table,
- Fertility declines by 5% from its level in 2010 levels,
- The sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females.
- The additions of the population in 2010 are also affected by net female migration.
The estimated numbers of females in Japan by age on 30/6/2010 and age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japanese in 2010 are presented in the following table:
|Age (x)||Number of females
x à x+5
Female pop. before Migration
Population in 2015
Note: Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving ( x à x+5)
Use 0 decimal places for the projected population
Some values from the Tx column of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for Japanese females (2010) are presented in the following table:
|Age x||5Lx||Tx||Age x||5Lx||Tx|
B.1. Using the results from A.1, describe and comment on the differences in the fertility parameters (ASFR, TFR and NRR) of Bangladeshi and Japanese female population. Comment on how do the values of Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) for Bangladeshi and for Japanese female population in 2010 compare to the replacement level? Suggest possible causes or determinants of its differences in those fertility measures.
According to result of A1, the fertility parameters of Japan and Bangladeshi vary significantly owing to the population contents and growth of the two countries. The TFR, NRR as well as the ASFR of Bangladeshi are higher than that of Japan due to a number of factors. Notably, the NRR of Bangladeshi reflects high female proportion and survival probability raising the figure higher than that of Japan in 2010 at the replacement level. More importantly, with this projection, Bangladeshi shows strong signals of reproduction rate, for women aged 15 to 44 (at the reproductive age). Japan on the other hand shows strong signal of fertility rate owing to different population growth indicators.
Some of the possible causes of the differences in fertility measures are owed to survival mechanisms of the women population, social interactions, and the pre-existing fertility conditions. The determinants of these measures are the fertility transitions, mortality changes, income levels of the population, and the net production rates.
B.2. Using the results from A.2, describe and comment on the differences in the mortality parameters (CDR and I-SDR) and patterns of Japanese and Bangladeshi female population. Please justify what are the possible reasons of its differences. According to A2, Japan shows high mortality parameter rates in terms of CDR and ISDR than Bangladeshi. The female population is high in Bangladesh than In Japan. However, the expected number of deaths is high in Japan than in Bangladesh. The difference is owed to the differences in their ASDR.
The possible reasons for this difference are among others due to their significant differences in the social strata of the two countries that reflect high population variances. The economic differences of the two nations is big as well making different population indicators, perceptions, and the health pre-existing conditions to vary.
- Compare and contrast the main characteristics of the long term population projections produced by the following five organisations (mention at least two points for each organisation):
United Nations (UN)
The UN publishes their population projections every 2 years with scenarios which differ in their assumptions on fertility rates. The main characteristics of these projections produced by the United Nations are production of these population scenarios with high, low and medium fertility trends assumptions in the future ((Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).). It also characterized by scenarios that illustrate the influence of rising life expectancy on projection outcomes though comparisons of fertility and alternative mortality scenarios in the future.
World Bank (WB)
Population projections characterized by their annual projections at the country levels. The long term projections are six biennial projections to 2150, which have base case and assumptions of either slow or rapid fertility decline. Their long-term projections are also characterized by 40 years projection output, and mainly for internal use.
(3) US Census Bureau (USCB)
The USCB long term projections are characterized by single a scenario with printed versions that show their output for 15 to 25 years into the future. Their projections are updated annually through to 2050.
(4) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
The IIASA population projections are characterized by three scenarios of output in 13 regions in the world through to 2100. The three outputs are fertility, mortality, and migration. The main characteristic of this institution is that they provide probabilistic output.
(5) Population reference Bureau (PRB)
The long-term population projection of the PRB is characterized by limitations of their public output to population size. In addition, their projections combine country-supplied projections, projections by the UN as well as that of the USCB to generate their own projections in minority of countries. The main characteristic of their projections is their generation of projections if only in access to more and reliable data on baseline population, fertility and mortality (Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).
- What projection method is used by each of these organizations?
The projection method used by all the above institutions is the cohort-component methodology.
- What are the two possible approaches discussed for allowing for a range of projected outcomes relating to assumptions about the future?
The two approaches discussed are the single scenario and the use of different scenario approach. They also use time based approach for projections.
- Summarize in point form (cover at least 5 points), the issues discussed in section 5 relating to assumptions for fertility trends for different countries over the future period of projections.
- Individual institutions have made massive steps in making significant contributions in making global projections in population by of use different methodologies in population projections
- United States and the United Nations have taken leadership roles and contributions to population projections in the world that are significant in global socio-economic planning.
- Most long term projections have myriad approaches but are characteristically based on time series scenarios that cover periods of time.
- The input assumptions which are the basis of these projections, for instance, future rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, vary considerably with the number output scenarios produced.
- The United Nations are best suited in producing long term projections based on their 10 years approximations which cater substantial changes and assumptions over the period.
Brian, et all. 2001, A Guide to Global Population Projections, Demographic research, vol (4); p 203-288.
Frejka, T., & Sardon, J.-P. (2004). Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: a cohort analysis. Dordrecht [u.a.], Kluwer.
United Nations. (2009). Completing the fertility transition. New York, N.Y., United Nations.
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